Government officials, business leaders and economic experts gathered at Calgary Economic Development’s (CED) Tariff Talks on Wednesday to tackle the impact of shifting U.S. trade policies on Calgary’s economy.
With the U.S. continuing to propose blanket 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as March 4 — on top of the global 25 per cent steel and aluminum tariffs the U.S. announced earlier in February — the event provided a timely forum to explore the challenges, opportunities and unknowns facing Calgary exporters.
“Is it going to be bumpy? Probably. Are we going to get through it? 100 per cent,” said Brad Parry, CED’s President and CEO.
"This is just one more test of Calgary's resilience, but I know we're going to come through this even better in the long run. We have a huge opportunity in our community to set ourselves up for long-term economic success and I think this is just one of those pieces that's going to drive us towards that."
While tariffs create near-term challenges, they also reinforce the need for businesses to diversify markets, strengthen supply chains and invest in innovation — moves that can ultimately position Calgary companies for greater stability and success.
Diversifying trade markets intentionally
CED’s efforts to support trade resilience and market diversification align with Calgary’s economic action plan, Uplook, ensuring local businesses can navigate uncertainty and pursue long-term growth.
With $156.1 billion in Alberta exports to the U.S. in 2023, local businesses are already making changes as the tariff threat looms.
“Consumers, businesses, investors — this uncertainty is already playing into decisions,” said Rob Roach, Deputy Chief Economist at ATB Financial. His analysis suggests a prolonged trade war could slow Canada’s GDP growth in 2025 followed by weaker expansion in 2026.
Even industries facing lower tariff rates aren’t immune. While Alberta’s energy sector — responsible for over 80 per cent of Alberta’s U.S.-bound exports — faces a proposal of only 10 per cent tariffs, costs still add up.
“Even at 10 per cent, getting that break, it certainly has a major impact on our largest export sector,” Roach said.
The event also featured insights from Mary Ballantyne, Executive Director of Trade Policy and Competitiveness, Government of Alberta, Jobs, Economy & Trade; Larry Ottewell, Senior Investment Evaluation Officer, AEEP, Government of Alberta; and Andreas Ottosson, Partner, International Tax and Transaction Services - Transfer Pricing, EY, who shared perspectives on trade policy and investment impacts.
Adapting for the future
The event concluded with a panel moderated by CED’s Director of Strategy, Kate Koplovich, featuring David Rist, Executive Director of MEE Cluster, and Sam Woods, Vice President of JORI International Ltd. Their discussion focused on practical ways businesses can adapt, including:
- Unbundling non-tariffed cost elements to offset price hikes.
- Realigning supply chain risks to minimize exposure.
- Leveraging expert guidance to navigate a shifting trade landscape.
“I don’t think this is a doom and gloom thing,” said Rist. “I think this is an opportunity for us to just reset, become more competitive and find opportunities in this current environment.”
Resilience, diversification key to mitigating trade risks
The Canada-U.S. trade relationship is foundational to Alberta’s economy. Tariffs increase costs, reduce competitiveness and inject massive uncertainty into business and investment decisions on both sides of the border.
As Calgary navigates shifting trade landscapes, CED is equipping businesses with the tools to expand to new markets and adapt while fostering a diverse and resilient local economy.
“We support businesses in their global expansion,” said Shona Riley, CED’s Trade Director.
"Whether you’ve never considered exporting or you're a well-established local business, we can help you take that next step."
Through initiatives like the Trade Accelerator Program (TAP) and targeted trade missions, CED provides businesses with expert mentorship, market insights and customized strategies to break into new markets with purpose. Expanding beyond traditional markets is not just a safeguard against uncertainty — it’s a strategic move to build a more resilient and globally competitive economy for Calgary.
Learn more about the Trade Accelerator Program and Calgary’s economic action plan, Uplook, both focused on building a diversified future for Calgary’s economy.