At Calgary Economic Development’s 2025 Economic Outlook, powered by ATB Financial, Bruce Heyman, former U.S. Ambassador to Canada, shared his thoughts on the upcoming U.S. presidential election and its potential influence on key local industries.
ATB Financial forecasts Alberta’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.5 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent next year, surpassing Canada’s projected growth rates of 1.2 per cent and 2 per cent. This positions Alberta ahead of the national curve, but Heyman — a 33-year veteran of Goldman Sachs and recently named CEO of Canadian investment firm Power Sustainable — stressed that Calgary, Alberta and Canada need to be prepared for the shifts and uncertainties that may emerge in 2025.
Here are the key takeaways from his remarks:
1. U.S. election a defining moment for Canada-U.S. relations: Heyman stressed the gravity of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, stating, “My personal belief is that this election is one of the most consequential elections that I have seen in my lifetime in the United States.” He emphasized that the election result could reshape the Canada-U.S. relationship, particularly regarding trade and immigration.
2. Navigating shifting trade policy: Heyman voiced concern over the possible return of tariffs under a Donald Trump administration. Trump has promised to impose a 10 to possibly 20 per cent tariff on all imports to the U.S. Heyman said, “There is no free trade agreement if you tariff everything, and so that agreement will be gone.” With renegotiations surrounding the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) coming up in 2026, his warning highlighted the potential for significant trade disruptions, which could harm Canadian industries reliant on cross-border commerce.
3. Alberta’s growth and the global landscape: While Alberta is expected to be a national leader in economic growth in 2025, Heyman’s insights emphasized the importance of staying agile in the face of global uncertainty. Alberta’s growing tech and energy sectors provide a strong foundation, but shifts in U.S. policies, particularly after the election, could influence the province’s economic trajectory.
Preparing for an uncertain future
To navigate this geopolitical uncertainty, Bruce Heyman’s remarks underscored the importance for businesses to prioritize foresight and strategic planning.
The upcoming U.S. election is poised to be a major turning point, not just for the United States, but for Canada and Alberta as well. With the potential for significant policy shifts, particularly in trade, immigration and energy, Alberta’s economic success in 2025 and beyond will depend on how well the province and the country prepare for these changes.
By actively identifying challenges, gaps and opportunities across Calgary’s sectors and workforce through applied foresight, Calgary Economic Development supports local industries in staying competitive, resilient and prepared for whatever may come next. This approach to build Calgary as a place where companies and talent can see a future in the city today — and 50 years from now — is the priority of the city’s economic action plan, Uplook.
Heyman’s call to action centered on the need to be proactive and adaptable. His emphasis on Calgary and Alberta's ability to remain resilient highlighted the importance of continuing to invest in areas like technology, energy diversification and talent development.
Across the public and private spheres, the Calgary community has been making these investments for years. This intentional approach has yielded recent results with the growth of its tech talent market by 78 per cent in five years, a critical mass of energy companies prioritizing decarbonization and a skilled workforce fed by innovative programs from Calgary’s seven post-secondary institutions.
While Calgary is well-positioned for growth, Heyman’s address served as a reminder that external factors like international politics and global economic trends can quickly alter the landscape. By staying agile and forward-thinking, Calgary can maintain its leadership role in the Canadian economy while navigating the complexities of an ever-changing world.
Learn more about Calgary's vision to create long-term prosperity and opportunities for all in our economic action plan, Uplook.