A top economist and business leaders weighed in at Calgary Economic Development’s 2025 Economic Outlook, powered by ATB Financial, on Oct. 8, 2024. An event replay will be available on our YouTube channel.
Economic optimism for Calgary in 2025 remains high as population growth, energy market access and sectoral diversification fuel resilience in the face of uncertainty. However, speakers at 2025 Economic Outlook, powered by ATB Financial, cautioned that geopolitical factors — particularly the upcoming U.S. presidential election — could impact the city’s trajectory over the coming year.
Held on Oct. 8, the event gathered top economists, government officials and business leaders to share insights on Calgary’s economic future amid global uncertainty. With the U.S. presidential election just one month away, many speakers emphasized its potential ripple effects on Alberta’s economy.
Geopolitics in focus
Keynote speaker Bruce Heyman, who served as U.S. Ambassador to Canada between 2014 and 2017 , emphasized the significance of the upcoming election.
“My personal belief is that this election is one of the most consequential elections that I have seen in my lifetime in the United States,” said Heyman, who last week was named the CEO of Montreal-based Power Sustainable.
Heyman criticized tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump as “one of the most detrimental potential proposals for the Canada-U.S. relationship.”
“I think that we owe a deep debt of gratitude to our bilateral relationship and friendship over the years, but it will be severely tested coming up.”
With the U.S. as Canada’s largest trading partner, many businesses in Alberta are bracing for potential shifts in tariffs, immigration policies and trade regulations.
Economic resilience amid global challenges
ATB Financial’s latest economic forecast, released just ahead of the event, predicts Alberta’s real GDP growth to outpace the national average. The province’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.5 percent this year and 2.8 percent in 2025, surpassing Canada’s projected growth rates of 1.2 percent and 2.0 percent.
Their report also identified geopolitical uncertainty as a key downside risk in the year ahead, but conversely noted diversification across sectors a strength for the province.
“Alberta is seeing more and more signs of diversification into other sectors right now, which is really, really positive for resiliency,” said Mark Parsons, ATB Financial’s VP and Chief Economist.
“There are some risks out there, but Alberta is well positioned over the next two years to weather the storm.”
Increased market access for energy, sustained population growth and the emergence of sectors such as tech, hydrogen and aviation are helping to cushion Alberta’s economy against these external challenges.
“I'm going to try and summarize everything in one word. So what's my word? ‘And’,” said Parsons. “It’s not an ‘or’ conversation.”
Parsons explained the province must remain laser-focused on diversification, productivity, energy transition and energy and food security.
Diversification key for Calgary
Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek said the city remains the economic engine of Alberta and Canada as a whole.
“This city that is home to everything from oil and gas to machine learning and artificial intelligence to film and eSports is the city that drives the success of our province,” said Mayor Gondek.
She noted how ongoing collaboration among all orders of government – and the private sector – are critical to realize investor confidence. Pointing to Calgary’s momentum in the global energy transition and aviation, Mayor Gondek acknowledged how the intersection of sectors creates new opportunities, with data centers as an example.
“It's one of the primary reasons that investor confidence remains so high for our city,” said Mayor Gondek. “When we invest in ourselves as Calgarians and present a bold vision that represents job opportunity, trade opportunity and development -- private sector investment and government partnerships follow.”
Brad Parry, President and CEO of Calgary Economic Development (CED) and CEO of the Opportunity Calgary Investment Fund (OCIF), also echoed the importance of building a resilient, diversified economy. He pointed to OCIF being a key tool investing in the future of the city by building its innovation agenda.
“At CED we look ahead five, 10, 20 and 50 years from now and dissect global trends that impact our key sectors to understand how we can best position our city and province to take advantage of these trends,” said Parry.
Parry noted its investments to date are working, with the fund seeing over 10 times the return of the funds committed, almost $1 billion of spurred on investments and over 800 companies created and scaled.
Underpinning the drive for diversification across sectors is the city’s economic action plan, Uplook, which sets out a vision for Calgary’s future as a forward-thinking and resilient city that creates prosperity for all.
A path forward for Calgary’s economy
Discussions during the event also centred on navigating the challenges posed by geopolitical instability while capitalizing on the strengths of Calgary’s energy, tech and several emerging sectors, as well as its friendly business environment.
“As we all know these days, Calgary is a whole lot more than just the energy capital these days,” said Premier Danielle Smith.
“The economy here has been diversifying for decades. In 2024, we saw investment in growth in so many of Calgary's key industries. The value proposition for investors is simple, but it’s persuasive.”
Smith nodded to Alberta’s tax rate being one of the lowest in North America, Calgary’s record venture capital investment outperforming Vancouver in the first half of 2024 and growth across Calgary’s aviation, film and television and fintech sectors.
“Here's what I expect to see in the coming year, it will be full speed ahead and business as usual in one of Canada's best performing economic centres. That's what every sign and trend is pointing to,” said Smith.
With the support of key partners, Calgary’s business community is optimistic about the future, despite potential headwinds. By continuing to invest in sectors like clean energy, hydrogen and tech, the city is well-positioned to maintain its growth momentum in 2025 and beyond.
As Calgary prepares for the challenges and opportunities of 2025, collaboration will remain critical.
Leaders at the event agreed that the future of Calgary’s economy will rely on continued innovation, talent attraction and adaptability in the face of global uncertainties.
2025 Economic Outlook was presented by ATB Financial, VIP Networking sponsor WSP Global Inc, and joined by Gold Sponsors CAAT Pension Plan, Postmedia and Rogers, and Silver Sponsors Mount Royal University, PCL Construction, Stone Olafson and the University of Calgary.
For more insights from 2025 Economic Outlook, watch it in the coming days on our YouTube channel. Learn more about our Team Calgary program.